Thunder's Place

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How Fast do we Gain - TP Data Analysis

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How Fast do we Gain - TP Data Analysis

I have seen a few posts lately asking variations on the following question:
“I’ve gained X amount in the last month/week/year, Is that a good?”
Basically asking the question of how fast should we reasonably expect to gain length or girth using PE.

So to answer this question I went to the TP database to see what can be gleaned about average rates of growth for Thunders Place members. This is the same dataset I’ve used for the other statistical posts I’ve made. It consists of about 2300 data points out of the more than 13000 data points in the TP database. I used only data where the user entered at least two measurements and I threw out any obviously bogus data.

I must say here that we have to avoid reading to much into this analysis. PE gains generally come much more quickly when you first start PE, while gains can be hard to find after the first year or two. What I offer here is just a look at average rates of growth of an average TP member. Some of the user data points average gains over a few months while other user’s data may include years of modest or no gain.

Given that caveat; here is what I found:

Average rate of growth in BPEL: 0.10 inches per month
Average rate of growth in EG: 0.045 inches per month

So this data suggests that one tenth of an inch length increase per month of PE is a reasonable rate of growth to expect… probably even faster in the beginning and then tapering off over time.

I think most guys would be thrilled with one-tenth of an inch gain per month, I know I would be.


2008 Starting size: 5.25 BPEL, 5.5 girth, vol. 12.7

2009 Plateau reached 6.5 BPEL, 6.0 girth, vol. 18.6

2012 Resumed PE 6.7 BPEL, 6.0 girth, Vol=19.2 Goal: it's all about the volume: Vol. > 20

Originally Posted by WrightMan
I have seen a few posts lately asking variations on the following question:
“I’ve gained X amount in the last month/week/year, Is that a good?”
Basically asking the question of how fast should we reasonably expect to gain length or girth using PE.

So to answer this question I went to the TP database to see what can be gleaned about average rates of growth for Thunders Place members. This is the same dataset I’ve used for the other statistical posts I’ve made. It consists of about 2300 data points out of the more than 13000 data points in the TP database. I used only data where the user entered at least two measurements and I threw out any obviously bogus data.

I must say here that we have to avoid reading to much into this analysis. PE gains generally come much more quickly when you first start PE, while gains can be hard to find after the first year or two. What I offer here is just a look at average rates of growth of an average TP member. Some of the user data points average gains over a few months while other user’s data may include years of modest or no gain.

Given that caveat; here is what I found:

Average rate of growth in BPEL: 0.10 inches per month
Average rate of growth in EG: 0.045 inches per month

So this data suggests that one tenth of an inch length increase per month of PE is a reasonable rate of growth to expect… probably even faster in the beginning and then tapering off over time.

I think most guys would be thrilled with one-tenth of an inch gain per month, I know I would be.

Nice data!

Now I feel under average. I’ve been only tracking since mid Jan, and I’ve gained half the averages. Basically I’ve gained about .04 inches per month in BPEL. My girth has gained about .02 inches per month. My gains would be considered Newbie gains, and fear that my gains will only taper off even further with time. I hoped to reach my goals in 1 year, 3 mo’s. Heck, now it seems it may take 2 years, 6 mo’s at my current pace.

Is there anyone else that gaining far (slower) below the averages calculated by WrightMan?

Originally Posted by charlie dog
Now I feel under average. I’ve been only tracking since mid Jan, and I’ve gained half the averages. Basically I’ve gained about .04 inches per month in BPEL. My girth has gained about .02 inches per month. My gains would be considered Newbie gains, and fear that my gains will only taper off even further with time. I hoped to reach my goals in 1 year, 3 mo’s. Heck, now it seems it may take 2 years, 6 mo’s at my current pace.

Is there anyone else that gaining far (slower) below the averages calculated by WrightMan?

I wouldn’t read too much into the data.

In fact MOST members gain less than the average rate while a relatively small percentage of members gain at a rate much higher than average. And gains, I’m sure, are not smooth… they come in fits and starts.

Think about it this way, even at 0.02 inches per month, in a year you would gain 1/4” girth and 1/2” length, which is more than 21% increase in volume.


2008 Starting size: 5.25 BPEL, 5.5 girth, vol. 12.7

2009 Plateau reached 6.5 BPEL, 6.0 girth, vol. 18.6

2012 Resumed PE 6.7 BPEL, 6.0 girth, Vol=19.2 Goal: it's all about the volume: Vol. > 20

Originally Posted by charlie dog
Now I feel under average. I’ve been only tracking since mid Jan, and I’ve gained half the averages. Basically I’ve gained about .04 inches per month in BPEL. My girth has gained about .02 inches per month. My gains would be considered Newbie gains, and fear that my gains will only taper off even further with time. I hoped to reach my goals in 1 year, 3 mo’s. Heck, now it seems it may take 2 years, 6 mo’s at my current pace.

Is there anyone else that gaining far (slower) below the averages calculated by WrightMan?

my average rates:

Average rate of growth in BPEL: 0.05 inches per month
Average rate of growth in EG: 0.03 inches per month

So I am below average like you charlie.. That is from my starting stats to now (10 months). However as stated, there are super gainers that up the average. Then again there are super non-gainers that take it down. I am not a statistics man myself, but there is a word for taking the average of the average, which would be interesting to see. As in eliminating the highs and lows, and taking the average of closer ‘mid-range’ gainers?

That would possibly eliminate the following:

-over exaggerators (though you seem to have already done so)
-gains due to increased EQ (not that they are fake, but would be good to know real tissue gains)
-slackers (guys who tug on their dick once a week and have been on thunder’s since the 90s)

All that being said, it is an interesting and valid study in my eyes. As in I recognised early on that I am a hard gainer and my “average gains” are roughly half the OP’s. So it does make sense


16.07.2011: Bpel 6.7" Eg 4.9" Fl 4.3"

08.05.2012: Bpel 7.2" Eg 5.1" Fl 5.8"

Originally Posted by marinera
Related
The significance of Thunder’s Place PE Data stats

wow! how come it stopped there? I am surprised the OP stopped and even more surprised that guys did not pick at the data he slaved away over.. Having read that thread, I believe the word I was looking for is median? Correct?

I am not a stats guy but if I have the time I will go over his studies and pick out some stuff to help us lay people to make sense of things like the average: starting stats, ending stats, overall gains, gains per X


16.07.2011: Bpel 6.7" Eg 4.9" Fl 4.3"

08.05.2012: Bpel 7.2" Eg 5.1" Fl 5.8"

I’ve been highly variable. I started out much faster in the very first few months but topped out too. Of course I stopped doing it regularly too so need to get back to it. What was the standard deviation on those averages?


Start (Oct 2010) NBPEL: 5, BPEL: 5.875 inches, BASE GIRTH: 5.25 inches, MID GIRTH: 5

(November 2013) NBPEL: 5.875, BPEL: 6.625 inches, BASE GIRTH: 5.625 inches, MID GIRTH: 5

Goal NBPEL(7-7.5)xMEG(5.5-6) (journal)

I gained really quickly and then virtually nothing for a year and a half.


Began December 2009 at 5 7/8" length and 5" girth.

As of December 5th 2012 7 3/8" BPEL and 6 1/8" base girth.

Going for the magic 8"x6"

I appreciate the common sense, positive feedback. Thanks WirghtMan & forSmybaby.

I believe I’ve been optimistic and realistic about expected gains. I was just a little surprised that the average gains are twice that as mine. If I can gain at current .04/mo length & .02/mo girth, I should be at my goal for length in 1 1/2 years, and for girth in 2 years. Even so, I’m going to try to reach both goals in 1.5 yrs. I’m about 6 mo’s in, so I have about a year to go.

From what I read from many members, their gains have been variable, sometimes with long periods of no gains, then out of nowhere, they get a bump up. It takes a lot of commitment to continue PE’ing months with no results, and continue regardless hoping for the pleasant surprise of a gain showing up. I much prefer continual positive feedback from measurements, but I’m keeping a level head with focus on the end result. That way I won’t get so disappointed & frustrated that I stop, probably just before my next milestone gain. Ha Ha!

It would be interesting to know from senior members how their gains occurred; randomly, consistently, or bouts of plateaus, or whether gains stopped all together regardless of time & commitment?

My gains are definitely below the average.

WrightMan,

One factor that may not be considered in your analysis is breaks. Example, I took a break from 2006 to 2011.

I realize that this may all average out if not too many guys are taking breaks.

sheLovesIt

What I find funny is the chart looks like balls & a dick. HA HA!! I’m sure that was planned. Nice!!

I think WrightMan hit it on the money. Sure, there’s various erroneous data, members lying, stretching the truth, mismeasuring, etc, etc. That’s also why it makes sense to take a large sample. I believe we need to trust, that for the most part, the vast majority of members are better informed by being on this site, that most members are measuring correctly, and that we should put some credence in the data.

The averages are as follows: Average rate of growth in BPEL: 0.10 inches per month, Average rate of growth in EG: 0.045 inches per month
That tells me that 50% of us are below average & 50% are above average.

So, basically, I’m in the below average category. SHIT!!!! HA HA!!

Who is going to gain 2.4” in two years? About nobody. Half of that is way more realistic.

I am sure the data is skewed in the direction of those members who have persisted and diligently followed their routine because they were actually gaining. Also, there are many who reported false information either out of misplaced egos, erroneous starting measurements (inexperienced at measuring), or using only initial quick gains and leaving the forum before they were cemented, or they stopped gaining. Many slow or non gainers for whatever reason never reported statistics.

I personally have gained 3/4 inch in EL over 2.5 years. That works out to 0.15 inch per 6 months or 0.03 inch per month. However, I did not gain in every month. Sometimes I would go for three or four months without any gains. Occasionally, I would gain 0.1 inch per month. Accordingly, my average gain would change depending on when I reported.

With regard to girth, I gained about .35 inch during my first year. I have only gained .15 inch in the subsequent 1.5 years. How do you measure average girth gain under those circumstances?


Start 11/09 BPEL: 5.5", EG: 4.4"

Current. BPEL: 6:4", EG: 5.5"

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